Predictors of major adverse cardiovascular events; results of population based MELEN study with prospective follow-up

S. Albayrak, H. Ozhan, Y. Aslantas, I. Ekinozu, H. Tibilli, O. Kayapinar, for the Melen Study Investigators

Department of Cardiology, Düzce University, Faculty of Medicine, Duzce, Turkey. ozhanhakan@yahoo.com

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• Cardiology

OBJECTIVE: In healthy persons, cardiovascular risk is the result of multiple interacting risk associates including demographic, clinical, genetic and environmental factors. Several non-invasive tools such as echocardiography, ultrasonography and electrocardiography as well as new biochemical markers were shown to be applicable to predict cardiovascular events. However, implementation of all of these tools has not been tested before. The aim of the study was to evaluate the independent predictors of major adverse cardiovascular events in a prospective population based study, with the use of bioempedance analysis, echocardiography, ultrasonography and ECG.

PATIENTS AND METHODS: The baseline measurements were conducted on 2230 participants (1427 women, 803 men with a mean age of 49±15). The follow-up was done 36 months after the baseline admission via telephone call. Major adverse event was defined as mortality or myocardial infarction or stroke.

RESULTS: Follow-up data was possible in 1495 participants (65%). During the follow-up of 36 months (4485 patient years), 42 major adverse events occurred (0.03%). Among them, 16 were death (1 stroke, 2 cancer, 13 cardiac related), 12 were stroke and 14 were myocardial infarction. Age, body mass index and atrial fibrillation were independent predictors of major adverse events; AF being the most powerful (Odds ratio 10.46; 95% confidence interval [1.73-63.14]; p = 0.010).

CONCLUSIONS: Age, lower body mass index and atrial fibrillation were independent predictors of major cardiovascular events in our cohort.

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